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Mark
J. Machina Department
of Economics University
of California, San Diego La
Jolla, CA 92093-0508 (858)
534-2391 |
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Surveys, Discussions and Encyclopedia
Articles
“Decision
Making in the Presence of Risk”
Science (May 1, 1987) (reprinted
in...)
“Choice under
Uncertainty: Problems Solved and Unsolved” Journal
of Economic Perspectives (Summer 1987) (reprinted
in...)
“Information
and Decision Making”
(with Robin Hogarth, Kenneth MacCrimmon, John
Roberts, Alvin Roth, Paul Slovic & Richard Thaler) Report of the
Working Group on Information and Decision Making for the National Research
Council’s Ten-Year Outlook on Research Opportunities in the Behavioral
and Social Sciences, 1985 (reprinted
in...)
“States of
the World and the State of Decision Theory” in The Economics of Risk, ed. by D. Meyer, 2003
“Choice under
Uncertainty”
in Encyclopedia of Cognitive Science,
ed. by Lynn Nadel, 2005
“Non-Expected
Utility Theory”
in Encyclopedia of Actuarial Science,
ed. by J. Teugels and B. Sundt,
2004
“Non-Expected
Utility Theory”
in International Encyclopedia of the
Social Sciences, 2nd edition, 2008, ed.
by William Darity, Jr.
“Expected
Utility Hypothesis”
in The New Palgrave Dictionary of
Economics, 2nd edition, 2008, ed. by Steven N. Durlauf
and Lawrence E. Blume (1st
edition version reprinted in...)
“Non-Expected
Utility Theory”
in The New Palgrave Dictionary of
Economics, 2nd edition, 2008, ed. by Steven N. Durlauf
and Lawrence E. Blume
“Risk” (with Michael Rothschild) in The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,
2nd edition, 2008, ed. by Steven N. Durlauf and
Lawrence E. Blume (1st
edition version reprinted in...)
Robustifying
the Classical Theory of Risk Preferences and Beliefs (my primary research
agenda)
· Robustifying the Analytics of the Objective Expected Utility
Model:
“ ‘Expected Utility’ Analysis
without the Independence Axiom” Econometrica (March 1982) (reprinted
in...)
“Comparative
Statics and Non-Expected Utility Preferences” Journal
of Economic Theory (April 1989)
“Non-Expected
Utility and the Robustness of the Classical Insurance Paradigm” Geneva
Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory (June 1995) (reprinted
in...)
· Robustifying the Classical Characterization of Subjective
Probability:
“A More
Robust Definition of Subjective Probability” (with David Schmeidler) Econometrica (July 1992)
(reprinted
in...)
“Bayes without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions
for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice”
(with David Schmeidler) Journal of
Economic Theory (October 1995) (reprinted
in...)
· Robustifying the Choice-Theoretic Foundations of Objective
Uncertainty:
“Almost-Objective
Uncertainty”
Economic Theory (July 2004)
· Robustifying the Analytics of the Subjective Expected Utility
Model:
“ ‘Expected Utility/Subjective
Probability’ Analysis without the Sure-Thing Principle or Probabilistic
Sophistication” Economic Theory (July 2005)
Rational
Choice under Uncertainty
“Dynamic Consistency
and Non-Expected Utility Models of Choice under Uncertainty” Journal
of Economic Literature (December 1989) (reprinted
in...)
“Bounded
Rationality Modeling”
(with Bertrand Munier, Reinhard
Selten, D. Bouyssou, P. Bourgine, R. Day, N. Harvey, D. Hilton, Ph. Parker, J. Sterman, E. Weber, B. Wernerfelt
& R. Wensley) Marketing
Letters (August 1999)
Analysis
of Non-Expected Utility Risk Preferences
“A Stronger
Characterization of Declining Risk Aversion” Econometrica
(July 1982)
“Generalized
Expected Utility Analysis and the Nature of Observed Violations of the
Independence Axiom”
in Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory
with Applications, ed. by B. Stigum and F. Wenstøp, 1983 (reprinted
in...)
“Attitudes
Toward Risk: Further Remarks”
(with Hans Binswanger and Jaime Quizon) Economic Journal (March 1984)
“Temporal
Risk and the Nature of Induced Preferences” Journal
of Economic Theory (August 1984)
“Stochastic
Choice Functions Generated from Deterministic Preferences over Lotteries” Economic
Journal (September 1985) (reprinted
in...)
“The Ross
Characterization of Risk Aversion: Strengthening and Extension” (with William Neilson) Econometrica (September 1987)
“Cardinal
Properties of ‘Local Utility Functions’ ” in Risk, Decision and Rationality, ed. by Bertrand Munier,
1988
“Two Errors
in the ‘Allais Impossibility Theorem’” Theory
and Decision (May 1995)
(“The Two
Errors: A Summary”)
“Payoff Kinks
in Preferences over Lotteries”
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
(November 2001)
“Risk,
Ambiguity, and the Rank-Dependence Axioms” American
Economic Review (March 2009)
“Event-Separability
in the Ellsberg Urn”
Economic Theory (October 2011)
“Ambiguity
Aversion with Three or More Outcomes”
manuscript (November 2012)
Other
Topics in Risk and Risk Aversion
“On Path
Independent Randomized Choice”
(with Robert Parks) Econometrica
(September 1981)
“Rational
Decision Making vs. Rational Decision Modeling?” Journal
of Mathematical Psychology (October 1981) (reprinted
in...)
“Flexibility
and the Demand for Risky Assets”
Economics Letters (Vol. 10, 1982)
“The
Incentive Implications of Incomplete Insurance: The Multiplicative Case” (with Takatoshi
Ito) Economics Letters (Vol. 13,
1983)
“Moment
Preferences and Polynomial Utility”
(with Sigrid Müller) Economics
Letters (Vol. 23, 1987)
“Increasing
Risk: Some Direct Constructions”
(with John Pratt) Journal of Risk and
Uncertainty (March 1997)
Econometrics
“Forecasting
and Decision Theory”
(with Clive Granger) in Handbook of
Economic Forecasting, Vol. 1, ed. by Graham Elliott, Clive Granger and
Allan Timmermann, 2006
“Structural
Attribution of Observed Volatility Clustering” (with Clive Granger) Journal of Econometrics (November-December
2006)
Economic
History
“On the
Profitability of Russian Serfdom”
(with Evsey Domar) Journal of Economic History (December
1984) (reprinted
in...)
News,
Gossip & Games
“Clive &
Rob’s Excellent Adventure”
(An account of the 2003 Nobel Prize Ceremonies)
“Barrett and Arntzenius’s Infinite Decision Puzzle” Theory
and Decision (November 2000)
“Machina's
Unceasingly Repeated Errors or Contradictions”
(as dispassionately reported by Maurice Allais)
Machina’s “Paralogisms,
Sophism, Mistakes and Contractions”
“then Allais would turn on
Machina”
Photos with some of his Heroes,
Friends and Colleagues